Sunday, March 11, 2018

Steel Tariffs

Nothing is simple these days, if it ever was. The current flap about tariffs and trade are only the most recent example. Wound up in that debate is the issue of "buying American".

I'm, in principle, a "buy local" guy. I'd rather go to The Mill than Starbucks for my overpriced caffeinated beverages for example. For years I worked for a locally-owned grocery store chain. When the national and regional chains started showing up in Lincoln, the company made much of their local roots, spotlighting that Hy-Vee was Iowa-owned, Walmart was Arkansas-owned and Trader Joe's was "Germany-owned". At the time I commented to the company president that people will only switch to our stores if we were better than the others, not because we were a local company. People will look out for their own best interests, and if that means shopping at the lower-priced Arkansas mega-retailer or the cool German-owned-with-the-California-vibe store rather than the local store, then they will. The same goes for "buying American". People will continue to buy foreign cars if they are priced right and are of adequate quality as long as they perceive that they're getting a better deal than with the American car manufacturers.

So we have two competing priorities: do we force people to buy American, thus supporting American business and jobs while simultaneously causing prices to go up, putting a burden on consumers, or do we allow unfettered free trade, allowing consumers to choose the best deal, while imperiling American businesses? The problem with tariffs supporting American businesses is that any lower-priced competitors are pushed out of the market, compelling consumers, which are sometimes other businesses, to pay higher prices. In the current example we will see some revitalization of the steel and aluminum industries, but what about car companies, which utilize steel in their  manufacturing? What about the numerous other companies that use steel? They have now been saddled with higher costs which will either result in higher prices for their products, layoffs, or both. Everything is connected. You can't isolate the US steel industry, take action to prop it up, and believe that there will be no downstream effects.

This is not to ignore that, in some cases, the prices of foreign goods are kept artificially low due to government supports and subsidies and that products are dumped into the US market below cost with the goal of driving domestic competitors out of business. This is not unheard of: how many local businesses did Walmart cause to go belly-up by undercutting their prices? On the other hand, consider how many businesses learned to adapt, becoming leaner and more efficient in order to battle Walmart. In this case a punitive tariffs might be in order. Sometimes foreign goods are cheaper due to lower labor costs. In all cases, targeted tariffs would make more sense. This is why we have trade agreements. We negotiate with individual nations or groups of nations; agreements may favor one segment of the economy while disfavoring others. NAFTA is an example of this - manufacturing and the attendant jobs moved to Mexico to take advantage of the reduced labor costs while agriculture benefited due to expanded markets. A good trade treaty benefits all sides; it's easy, however to pick aspects of a treaty and paint it as "unfair" when taken out of context of the rest of the treaty.

Trump talks a lot about the trade deficit that we have with many nations. (He also talks about trade deficits that we have with countries that we actually have trade surpluses with). A trade deficit can be a bad thing. Consistently buying more than we sell can be an indication that we have a weak manufacturing sector. It's unclear which is the cart and which is the horse in this metaphor though. A large trade imbalance also means that non-Americans are holding large amounts of dollars, which, if they are sold in quantity, could result in a devaluing of the dollar, making it costlier to purchase imports.

But Trump talks about a trade deficit as if we are losing money. Every dollar of a trade deficit represents a dollar's worth of goods or services that someone or some business in the US purchases. It is not money flowing out of the country. It's a complicated subject that cannot be reduced to sound bites, memes or applause lines at campaign events. Trump is ignorant about most subjects that one would expect a president to be conversant in; he is resistant to advice from people who are conversant, even expert in these subjects. He doesn't understand economics, but he does understand people and how to push their buttons and play on their ignorance to garner the applause, support and adulation, and eventually votes.









Trump's Pennsylvania Appearance Campaigning for Republican Candidate

Trump's latest speech campaigning for a Republican candidate went about how you'd expect it to:

  • Started off talking about steel. "We're saving The Steel". 
He claims that "a lot of steel mills are opening up because of what I did". It's true that some steel plants have announced that they will be ramping up production in anticipation of increased demand due to imported steel being priced out of the market.

  • Moves on to "there's a lot of evil in Washington D.C." and "there's a lot of fake, fake media". 
For an administration that's mired in scandal and being actively investigated by the FBI, it takes a lot of chutzpah to point the finger at others. 
  • Next, he claims credit for the Olympics being successful, says that President Moon of South Korea said that "Without Donald Trump the Olympics would have been a total failure", then adds on "it's true". 
What specifically, or even generally, did Trump do to save the Olympics? And of course, saying "it's true" usually means it's not. "Nobody's going to say" - yeah because it's not true. 
  • "It's a little hard to sell tickets when you think you're going to be nuked"
North Korea wasn't threatening to nuke anyone until Trump started his fire & fury bullshit. 
  • Calls Chuck Todd a "sleepy-eyed son of a bitch"
Does this require any comment?
  • Puts down Clinton announcing in 1999 that an agreement had been made with North Korea, contrasts with Trump the same year saying that "we have to take North Korea out"
None of Trump's supporters seem to notice that despite his derision of former Presidents having "talks" with North Korea, and his bellicose threatening, he is now agreeing to "talk" to North Korea.
  • Complains about NBC negatively reporting on him even though he "gave them great ratings" for The Apprentice for 14 years
Once again, a fundamental lack of understanding of how a free press works
  • Incoherent babbling about Obama
Once again, comparing himself to Obama. A President's accomplishments should stand on their own, shouldn't need to constantly compare himself to a predecessor
  • Attacks GW Bush over his wars 
The crowd doesn't respond
  • Brags about 98% of ISIS territory being liberated
First of all, they don't need land, Al Qaeda never did and second, thanks Kurdish Pesh Merga, Turkey and Iraqi Army
  • Defends his "joking" about the US needing to try that "President-for-Life" thing that Xi in China is doing
Trump just doesn't understand when it's appropriate to joke and when it's not. If not for his history of autocratic tendencies, maybe we all would have laughed with him. Take into account that he congratulated Xi on his attainment of lifetime power. Why is okay for Xi, but not okay for Venezuela? Oh yeah: chocolate cake.
  • Claims that news organizations ratings will tank if he is not re-elected, throws in his usual slur "Pocahontas" at Warren. 
He's got a point there, news organizations are guilty, in my opinion, helped vault Trump into his present position. But they managed to survive before him and they'll survive after him. He couldn't resist his slur against Warren though
  • "African unemployment"?
*sigh*
  • He doesn't think he has a problem with women, says 52% of women voted for him
I think it was 52% of white women, but for the life of me I can't figure out why so many women so no problem with him, just like I am bewildered at how many Christian Evangelicals support him
  • Repeatedly calls Rep. Maxine Waters "low IQ"
He insults everybody, but he seems to reserve special contempt for women
  • Trump admits that he proposed his DACA "solution" because he knew the Democrats would reject it
His opponents are not surprised, his supporters don't care that he just admitted to duplicity
  • Knocks Reagan on trade
The audience doesn't respond when he puts down Reagan's trade policies, they don't have a ready-made chant when one of their heroes is insulted
  • Trump takes credit for Handel's win over Ossof in Georgia
Trots out some confusing and probably irrelevant numbers to prove that he made the difference (in a safely Republican district, Ossof the Democrat lost by 1.5%
  • Rambles on about how he doesn't know what tax reform is - "I call it TAX CUTS!"
Yup. Big tax cuts for the rich, tiny tax cuts for the working people. I love how he brags about his phenomenal ignorance
  • Bitching about crowd size again
Size apparently is very important to Trump
  • Rambling about The Wall and NAFTA and trade deficits
Starts out by criticizing Mexico for not wanting to pay for The Wall, then immediately criticizes the Democrats for not funding The Wall. Says we are "losing" billions, when he is talking about the trade deficit
  • Death Penalty for Drug Dealers!
He loves dictators, he uses Duterte as example of how to deal with drug dealers. Then confuses The Philippines with Opium-era China. Next up, using Singapore as an example of how to deal with crime. 
  • MS-13: "We liberated those towns, Hillary wouldn't have liberated those town"
More of the ongoing conflation of MS-13 gang violence with run of the mill refugees and immigrants
  • Claims that "thousands" were turned away.
While Trump does often draw some large crowds, his crowd size estimates are often at odds with the listed capacity of some of the buildings where these events are held. And you would think that some of Trump's people would put together some video evidence of people being turned away.
  • Being Presidential
Seems to think that Presidential = Stiff, Boring and Robotic. No "Presidential" means taking the job seriously instead of a big joke

Right after he was elected Trump said that he wanted to be "the President of all the people, because that is very, very important to me" . I was angry because the implication was that we were supposed to forget the hatred, the insults, the xenophobia and misogyny that came out on the campaign. I needn't have worried because it all continued after the election, with extra helpings of ignorance.