Whiskey Pete

"Whiskey Pete" Hegseth -- what can I say about him that would convey the depth of his incompetence? His view of the mission of the military, despite his own service (National Guard officer commanding a unit guarding detainees in Iraq) appears to a be a combination of romanticized views of the Crusades pushed by White Christian Nationalists, video game imagery, and the "kill 'em all, God will sort 'em out" rationale of several recently pardoned war criminals.

He has stated that his goal is to make the military more efficient and effective "warfighters" and restore a "warrior ethos", yet one of his first moves was to eliminate the group that studies and makes recommendations on how to respond to future threats. What his actual goal has been, is to eliminate any hint of "wokeness" (defined as "stuff we don't like" that doesn't align with White Christian Nationalism). In this he is simply echoing one of the goals of his boss, Figurehead President Trump, who, in breaks from exacting retribution on his enemies, his also eliminating any "wokeness" from the federal government. Somehow, by getting rid of otherwise competent transgender service members and firing top generals and admirals who aren't warrior enough (translation: white male) this will transform our military into a cadre of warriors feared throughout the world. I am not a veteran, and many who served may believe that I have no right to an opinion about this, but I don't want our military to observe a "warrior ethos". I don't want our soldiers and sailors and airmen to be warriors -- screaming barbarians out for individual glory, undisciplined, with no concept of a chain of command -- I envision our military as protectors of our sovereignty and defenders of freedom. If you're truly buying into a warrior mindset, are you also accepting the related concept of the warrior caste, a warrior aristocracy? Trump's first tern Chief of Staff, retired General John Kelly certainly seemed to think that civilians had no right to question the military. Here's a link to a great article about why the term "warrior" is inappropriate for a modern military: Warrior vs. Soldier

In addition to Whiskey Pete's repulsive mindset, he's incompetent. By now we should all be used to incompetence being a feature, rather than a bug, of Trump's administration. His first administration was the very definition of incompetence. Trump arguably didn't think he'd be elected and had no idea how things worked. This time around, he still doesn't really understand how things work, but the difference is that he doesn't care and wants to break things. He's got people on his staff from Project 2025 who can write the executive orders for him to sign and compliant cabinet secretaries who will let Elon Musk gut their departments. Expertise will just get in the way. Hegseth is where he is 95% due to his loyalty to Trump and 5% due to his military service which gives an illusion of experience. Running an entire military is orders of magnitude more involved than commanding a platoon with a few dozen soldiers with one mission (in Hegseth's case, guarding prisoners of war in Iraq). In other words, Hegseth lacked relevant management experience. In a normal administration a Secretary of Defense would have extensive government experience, and understanding of the necessity to utilize the knowledge of the experts under their command. A First Lieutenant with a few years command of a limited mission with no background overseeing large organizations is the very definition of unqualified. 

Of course, this week's debacle where the plans to bomb another country were discussed over a non-secure messaging/chat app that accidently included a journalist was a stark illustration of what a cluster fuck decision making in the Department of Defense and this administration is. The ass covering and contradictory lies would be hilarious if the potential for disaster wasn't present (and only narrowly averted). One attempt at explanation blamed the editor from The Atlantic for "hacking into" the chat, as if the possibility that operational security was so flimsy that a journalist with zero technical proficiency was able to sneak into confidential government planning was somehow better. They tried to smear Goldberg, accusing him of fabricating the whole thing, (simultaneously denying that any classified information was discussed on the chat that Goldberg supposedly made up) -- then had to backpedal after he published the whole chat. They went for hair splitting, claiming that they weren't "war plans", since it wasn't technically a war. 

To be fair, something had to be done about the Houthis and their disruption of shipping. They made a big deal about Biden's actions being ineffective, but it remains to be seen if this week's mini-war is any more effective. 

What a mess...but not unexpected. 

Yes, They CAN take Your Social Security

While I hold out hope that this will never happen, especially since I started receiving benefits just this month, "they" can take your Social Security. Your protestations that you "paid into it" your whole working life are essentially irrelevant. 

"I paid into it" comments are usually made due to a lack of understanding of how Social Security works. I have written on this several times from multiple angles -- use the search function to find complete explanations -- but once money is deducted from your paycheck, it's no longer yours in any real sense. It was used to pay benefits to people who were retired while you were working. It's not set aside for you in an account with your name on it. What you receive in benefits upon retirement is calculated based on a formula that takes into account how much your earned over your lifetime. You may receive more or less than was deducted depending on how long you live. 

Since currently the total amount paid out each year in benefits exceeds what is collected through payroll deductions the surplus in the Social Security Trust Fund is being depleted. It will be depleted in around 10 years. At that time revenue from payroll taxes will only cover around 80% of benefits. But even setting aside the depletion of the Trust Fund surplus, the Trust Fund itself is not a pile of cash -- it's Treasury Bonds that are in effect government IOU's. So, dipping into the Trust Fund balance to pay the difference between benefits and revenue means cashing in some of those Treasury Bonds (or collection interest on them). This means that the a portion of Social Security benefits are in reality coming out of the general fund budget even if for accounting purposes the general fund is untouched. 

Is it really outside the realm of possibility that this administration, which has thus far shown no deference to the rule of law or to the needs of ordinary Americans, could unilaterally decide to stop paying interest or allowing redemption of Treasury bonds by the Social Security administration? This would limit benefits now to 80% of revenue from payroll taxes. What would prevent Trump and his minions from altering the formula for calculating benefits so that benefits are reduced across the board? Congress has so far been unwilling to restrain his dictatorial actions and it remains to be seen whether he will defer to the courts when all appeals are exhausted. 

It's a nightmare scenario, but is it really outside the realm of possibility?

You Have TWO Pairs of Gloves?*

Whenever I engage with a Trumper I think back to the movie "Dumb and Dumber". Jim Carrey's character was a complete idiot, but in all his interactions he was convinced that everyone else was the idiot. I've lost count of the number of times I have been told to "educate yourself", "do your research" or been advised to "stop listening to CNN". They have assumed that because I haven't come to the same conclusion that they have, I am just mindlessly parroting what the perceived liberal media has been feeding me. This usually from someone who is repeating verbatim the opinion du jour on Twitter or the Joe Rogan Show. 

One of the blessings that is simultaneously a curse in the modern era is the proliferation of sources of news and opinion, and the ability for those sources to be seen and heard by millions. And not all of them are created equal. In my view, most of the "news" that you see spread on social media isn't news at all, but opinion and analysis. Sometimes you have to shovel away the muck of opinion in order to get to the news underneath. "News" is a piece of information -- often verified, but not always. "Trump has levied a 25% tariff on Nation X" is an example of news. You can look up Trump's quote, maybe even see a video clip of him saying it. It's a fact. "Trump's tariffs will cause inflation" is analysis. It's a prediction, the accuracy of which cannot be immediately assessed because it's predicting the future. It's relationship to facts can be judged by the level of expertise of the person making the prediction. Finally, "Trump's tariff's are idiotic" is an opinion. The opinion may be based on facts, based on analysis, but it's still not a fact. What I see from many people on social media, people who vote, is that they are basing their opinions, not on facts, not even on analysis, but on someone else's opinion. 

What I do on this blog is present my opinion. I do my best to base my opinion on facts and expert analysis, but my personal bias is bound to slip in; it can't be avoided. I do my best to withhold comment until I'm reasonably sure that something I intend to comment on is a fact. It's difficult at times, especially when I read something that overlaps with my own positions and I want to  believe that it's true. It's one of the reasons that I seldom share memes. On Inauguration Day this year it was reported that Trump issued a deluge of executive orders. Instead of reading about the EO's, I read the actual documents, formed my opinion based on my knowledge of the law and the Constitution and wrote about it. In some cases I had to look up previously reported facts or the actual text of the Constitution, but I formed my opinion independent of what any media outlets said about it. One of the things that I wrote, on Day One, was that Trump was acting dictatorially, and later, that we were in an actual dictatorship, something mainstream media was slow to opine, if they have broached the subject at all. 

In my online interactions with Trumpers I confine my comments to things that I know as facts, or to analysis that I have a high confidence in. Yet on a regular basis I'm treated to the ever-popular laughing emoji or suggestions that I'm a communist. Admittedly, social media conversations are the least of our national problems, but I intend to stay informed and speak my mind whenever possible. 

* The title is a reference to Dumb and Dumber, where Jeff Daniels' character complains about his freezing hands as he rides on the back on the little scooter. Jim Carrey's character offhandedly mentions the two pairs that he is wearing - to which he responds incredulously "You have TWO pairs of gloves!?"

Retribution

 It shouldn't be too difficult to understand the difference between Trump's legal troubles pre-election, and the retribution he intends to exact on anyone who stood against him. In the former, Trump took actions, for the most part in public view, that flouted the law, actions which begged to be investigated. What he is doing, and is promising to do yet, is searching for something to charge those who offended him. 

Trump has spent his whole life wriggling out from under legal consequences to his actions. In most cases he has simply waited out anyone who sued him, knowing that his own resources could allow him to do so. I'm not convinced that the charges against him in New York, for which he was convicted of 34 felonies, wasn't politically motivated, or the fact that each ledger entry, and each check written was a separate charge wasn't piling on, but they were certainly based on real actions that he had taken. The prosecutor also had to convince a grand jury to indict and a petit jury to unanimously convict. The charges of attempting to subvert a national election, however, were another matter. He very publicly was attempting to negate the results of an election and illegally retain power. He did it right in front of everybody. He was running schemes to disallow electoral votes in states he didn't win, he was going to court with fantasies about phantom voters, he convinced thousands of his supporters that the election was stolen and incited them to attack the Capitol in an attempt to stop the certification of the election. Federal grand juries in two jurisdictions and a state grand jury in Georgia ruled that there was sufficient evidence to go to trial. 

Trump was consistently adamant that the charges were bogus, characterizing them as a "witch hunt", as he did with his two impeachments and the Russia "Collusion" investigation. But, as with so many times in the past, he was able to wait out his accusers. Like he did with so many civil suits, his lawyers were able to win so many delays that none of the federal indictments came to trial before he was re-elected, effectively ending prosecution. Even the convictions in New York resulted in no meaningful penalties. Despite his playing the persecuted martyr card he got away scot free. 

But now he's threatening to use the power of the presidency to exact revenge on everyone whom he perceived to have wronged him. 

Aide from the threats to "go after" President Biden and his family, law firms that participated in any of his trials, the members of the January 6th Committee, former Special Counsel Jack Smith, and others who I can't remember right now, he has appointed as Attorney General, FBI Director and Assistant Director people who have made it clear that they're going after anyone on their "enemies list". This isn't, as Trump and his supporters maintain, simply a matter of holding people accountable. They are starting with the assumption of guilt and will "investigate" until they find something that they can twist into a crime. He has also started arresting permanent legal residents for speech he doesn't like and suing news organizations for printing things about him that he doesn't like. (So far, only one speech arrest of a green card holder that we know of: a Columbia student who organized protests against Israel's war in Gaza; a newspaper in Iowa is being sued under consumer protection laws for incorrectly predicting who would win in Iowa in the presidential election) In addition to legal action and threats of legal action, Trump has removed security details from protecting former government officials who have received credible assassination threats. 

Threats, legal action, and warrantless arrests. Dictatorship...it's what's for dinner.

Government Waste

Ask anyone if they are in favor of government waste, and you won't find anyone who supports it. The problem is -- how do you define waste? The current rampage whereby Trump has illegally delegated virtually unlimited authority to an unelected bureaucrat apparently defines waste as anything they don't like.

An article of faith of the Project 2025 crowd and other small government purists is that the regulatory agencies have effectively become an unconstitutional fourth branch of government. This view romanticizes the early days of the nation -- when we were a narrow band of virtually independent states composed mostly of farmers, merchants and tradesmen. We didn't even have a standing army worthy of the name. The country, in both population and land area has grown exponentially in two centuries. A framework needed to be created to deal with the increasing complexity of life. Lessons learned from the Great Depression as well as a push to build protections for ordinary Americans from the rich and powerful led to the creation of many of the regulatory agencies that populate the executive branch. 

One of the least understood aspects of governing is that laws are not self-executing or self-enforcing. An example that affects most people is speeding laws. A law can be passed to create a maximum speed on our highways, but what then? Who puts up the signs to alert drivers to the limit? Who enforces it? What are the fines or other penalties? What infrastructure must be put in place to make sure it all happens according to the new law? If there are fines, where do they go? In this example, the local police enforce the speed limit and local courts exact the penalties. But what other powers do the police have? What discretion do the courts have? Who's paying for all of this? 

Legislative bodies pass bills that, with the assent of the executive, become law. But more often than not the laws do not address the on-the-ground, nitty-gritty, details of how these laws will be implemented. This is where the regulatory agencies come in. The agencies write regulations intended to execute and enforce the laws that Congress has passed. They clear up ambiguities in the original statute, address exceptions, and as a division of the executive branch, execute the will of the people as expressed through Congress. Departments and agencies propose a budget each year which is included as part of the president's budget that he sends to Congress. Congress then makes any changes, and sends it back to the president for his signature, upon which it becomes, effectively, the law of the land. (I am aware that in recent years this process has not been followed and "continuing resolutions" become the rule) Once that budget is in place, the agencies have a framework with which to guide their actions over the next year. They have been authorized to spend money on the projects and priorities that Congress approved and are now tasked with working out the details and delegating them to the appropriate staff. 

The president, as the head of the executive branch of government, has authority over the departments and agencies within the  executive branch. Congress, however, has limited that authority by legislating that some bodies would be functionally independent, with the president appointing an agency head and the Senate confirming, but limiting the president's ability to dismiss the department head. Other departments, notably the Department of Justice, are traditionally non-partisan and independent, but there is no law mandating that this is the case. The Department of Defense, though constitutionally under the direct authority of the president as Commander-in-Chief, traditionally does not take partisan sides. Even in the parts of the executive branch where the president's authority isn't limited, he still does not have the authority to ignore or circumvent the law. 

In recent years Congress has ceded a great portion of it's power and authority to the president. It seems like every year we're at the same place where it can't agree on a budget and the threat of a government shutdown looms. A crisis is averted time and time again by passing a so-called continuing resolution, i.e. funding the government at previously approved levels. Presidents of both parties have taken advantage of Congressional dithering by attempting to govern by executive order. The problem with executive orders is that they aren't laws. They can be, and are, reversed when a president of the opposing party is elected. Even in situations more "normal" that what we're seeing now, one of the first things a newly inaugurated president does is overturn some of a previous president's executive orders. Executive orders can be overturned, or affirmed, by Congress. What ends up happening though is that the order ends up being challenged in court, Congress once again choosing to give up its constitutional authority. 

Trump has illegally delegated to Elon Musk the task of rooting out waste, fraud, and corruption in government. But how have they defined "waste"? They haven't. I would define it as " inefficiency" -- which ties into the "...of government efficiency" that Musk's illegal operation is supposedly trying to implement. Nebraska Senator John Peter Ricketts recently gushed about meeting Musk, bragging about instituting "Lean Six Sigma", a process improvement framework, in Nebraska State government (which his successor, Jim Pillen, axed) This program critically examined various processes, looking for ways to streamline them, cutting out unnecessary handoffs and redundant steps. It looked at organizational structure to determine whether certain positions were sited in the right divisions. It was overseen by someone appointed by the governor, but implemented by people in the departments who knew the details of the work being done, not by outsiders who had no idea of how government worked, or what the public sectors employees were actually doing. 

 Musk's illegal operation, unconstitutionally delegated to him by Trump, is not looking for inefficiencies. They have no idea what an efficiently run agency would look like and don't appear to have any desire to find out. They are not even pretending to look for waste, fraud or corruption, and even when they say they've found some, it has generally meant that they have misunderstood or misrepresented the data. What they are doing is targeting any agency that has any regulatory or oversight authority that might interfere with his own government contracts by illegally closing them down, sometimes locking employees out of their offices. (Trump's executive order eliminating any position that has any connection to what he thinks is "woke" seems to be separate) Additionally they are firing thousands of employees who are in probationary status, allegedly for poor performance, even when they have not received any negative performance reviews. 

Not only is all of this illegal, but it is being done without any thought for the consequences. 

As for fraud and corruption, if there was any, wouldn't Trump being subjecting the corrupt officials and fraudsters to perp walks and tweeting about it nonstop? 

I'm all for rooting out government waste. But let's do it right. Get some auditors in there. Review the processes. Really look for inefficiencies. 

But that's not going to happen...that's not what the goal is.

Oval Office Clown Show

 Many in the Trump Cult are criticizing Ukrainian President Zelenskyy for "disrespecting" President Trump, and for not realizing the precarious position that his country is in. From where I sit, it's Trump and JD Vance (or whatever his name is) who were disrespectful and bullying.

The meeting was moving along just fine, until this remark by Vance:

"For four years, the United States of America, we had a president who stood up at press conferences and talked tough about Vladimir Putin, and then Putin invaded Ukraine and destroyed a significant chunk of the country. The path to peace and the path to prosperity is, maybe, engaging in diplomacy. We tried the pathway of Joe Biden, of thumping our chest and pretending that the president of the United States’ words mattered more than the president of the United States’ actions. What makes America a good country is America engaging in diplomacy. That’s what President Trump is doing"

Vance (or whatever his name is) was attempting, in his ass-kissing, Putin-loving way, to denigrate a previous president, making it look like Biden's approach caused the invasion -- Trump often says that the invasion wouldn't have taken place if he had been president at the time. Zelenskyy kept his cool, but he wasn't about to allow this guy school him on the reality of the war. He replied with these words:

“OK. So he (Putin) occupied it, our parts, big parts of Ukraine, parts of east and Crimea. So he occupied it in 2014. So during a lot of years — I’m not speaking about just Biden, but those times was...President Obama, then President Trump, then President Biden, now President Trump. And God bless, now, President Trump will stop him. But during 2014, nobody stopped him. He just occupied and took. He killed people. You know what the –” (Trump and Vance both interrupted him at this point.)

Zelenskyy was making the point that the invasion started, albeit a low-key, not a full scale invasion, in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea. That same year separatists in eastern Ukraine received support from Russian forces. His point was that the Russian war had begun eleven years ago, and had included Trump's first term. (Trump occasionally makes the point that Obama donated "pillows and blankets" [actually, non-lethal aid and support]  while he donated javelin missiles - so he's very aware that the war was going on then)

Zelenskyy continues:

“Yes, but during 2014 ’til 2022, the situation is the same, that people have been dying on the contact line. Nobody stopped him. You know that we had conversations with him, a lot of conversations, my bilateral conversation. And we signed with him, me, like, you, president, in 2019, I signed with him the deal. I signed with him, (French President Emmanuel) Macron and (former German Chancellor Angela) Merkel. We signed ceasefire. Ceasefire. All of them told me that he will never go … But after that, he broke the ceasefire, he killed our people, and he didn’t exchange prisoners. We signed the exchange of prisoners. But he didn’t do it. What kind of diplomacy, JD, you are speaking about? What do you mean?”

Zelenskyy is hammering home his rebuttal to Trump and Vance that he has tried diplomacy, that there was a ceasefire that Putin violated. He's asking rhetorically about what type of diplomacy they think will work with Putin. Vance (or whatever his name is) responds:

“I’m talking about the kind of diplomacy that’s going to end the destruction of your country..."

Well, that's specific. He goes on:

"Mr. President, with respect, I think it’s disrespectful for you to come into the Oval Office to try to litigate this in front of the American media. Right now, you guys are going around and forcing conscripts to the front lines because you have manpower problems. You should be thanking the president for trying to bring an end to this conflict.”

This is where Vance (or whatever his name is) starts in with his insistence that Zelenskyy should be groveling more. They go back and forth about this; Zelenskyy then gets a word in:

“First of all, during the war, everybody has problems, even you. But you have nice ocean and don’t feel now. But you will feel it in the future. God bless –”

Trump jumps in here. Zelenskyy made the point that we in the United States are safe behind our oceans, but that there will come a day when Putin even comes for us. It looks to me like Zelenskyy is using the word "feel" in the sense of feeling a punch, not feelings in the sense of emotions. (Remember that just a few years ago Zelenskyy needed an interpreter -- English is not his first language.) But Trump apparently thinks he is referring to his feelings, his emotions and lashes out at Zelenskyy, insisting that he not "tell us how we're going to feel". Trump is really triggered here, and it seems like he's mad that Zelenskyy is expressing anger at and distrust of, Putin. 

It really goes off the rails after this. Trump talking over and interrupting Zelenskyy, with Vance (or whatever his name is) jumping in to offer support. Finally, a reporter breaks in to ask a question:

"What if Russia breaks the ceasefire?”

And it ends up with Trump, who lives in his own fantasy world where everyone loves and respects him, answers:

“What, if anything? What if the bomb drops on your head right now? OK, what if they broke it? I don’t know, they broke it with Biden because Biden, they didn’t respect him. They didn’t respect Obama. They respect me. Let me tell you, Putin went through a hell of a lot with me. He went through a phony witch hunt … All I can say is this. He might have broken deals with Obama and Bush, and he might have broken them with Biden. He did, maybe. Maybe he did. I don’t know what happened, but he didn’t break them with me. He wants to make a deal. I don’t know if you can make a deal.”

And there it is folks...

Trump's Ego Regarding Ukraine

Why does Trump act as if he cares whether there is "peace" between Ukraine and Russia? He has made it clear that he believes that our allies are nothing but parasites who are taking advantage of us, using the United States to protect them militarily and prop up their economies. It was my opinion that he would veto any military aid to Ukraine that Congress approved and just let Russia overrun them if the European nations couldn't make up the difference. I neglected to take into account his mindset that everything comes down to financial transactions and his massive ego. 

Of course he would want to get Ukraine to "pay up". In Trumpworld, it's always a zero sum game. There's no consideration that it might be bad for the whole world (which incidentally, includes us) if we allow Russia to conquer Ukraine. That it would be in our own national interest, even if we don't commit our own troops, to support Ukraine's resistance to this invasion. No, Trump looks at it like Zelenskyy is a tenant behind on his rent. Let's not overlook the fact that the agreement that didn't happen required Ukraine to sign over 50% of the revenue from the extraction of some minerals with nothing in return....forever! 

Trump's ego was a variable that I shouldn't have overlooked. The Nobel Peace Prize has been something that he has lusted after since President Obama was awarded his. He really, really thought he would receive the honor after the so-called Abraham Accords in his first term -- reciprocal recognition by Israel and several Arab nations who were not at war with each other. He made much of the fact that no new wars were started during his first term, as if that was a unique achievement and as if we weren't still at war in Afghanistan during his whole term and fighting against ISIS during much of it. Or that the military, under his orders, hadn't been engaged in multiple actions and assassinated a high ranking general from a nation with which we were not at war. Despite all that, he wanted to be thought of as a peacemaker. Aside from his position that we shouldn't even be involved with the Russia-Ukraine war, he wanted to be able to take credit for ending it -- cementing his self image as one who ends wars, not starts them. During the campaign Trump boasted that he could end the war in 24 hours, even before he took office. That didn't happen. But the bragging telegraphed that this non-economic issue was important to him. A problem, if not the problem, was that he had no idea what he was doing or what it would take to bring the two sides together. 

So he decided to not get the two sides together. 

He has sided with the aggressor, who not only launched a major invasion three years ago, but had annexed Crimea in 2014 and had been engaged in a barely below the radar war in eastern Ukraine, ostensibly supporting Russian speakers there. He has started "negotiations" that has excluded Ukraine, claiming that Ukraine should be "thankful" for whatever "deal" Trump extracts from Putin.  Not only has he sided with the aggressor, he has publicly stated that Ukraine started the war! Then, Trump "welcomes" Zelenskyy to the Oval Office, mocks his attire, and expects him to grovel before the mighty Americans, thankful for whatever crumbs we can throw him, and acquiesce to Putin's dismembering of his country. Zelenskyy was in no mood to be lectured to, or listen to Putin's talking points from the mouths of Trump and Vance, after presiding over a fight for the life of his country. 

Trump and Putin want Ukraine to simply give up. Much is made of how Ukraine would have collapsed long ago if not for American and European assistance. (Although Trump would have you believe it was virtually all American) This may be true, but much should be made of how a small nation like Ukraine has held off Russia, a huge and powerful nation, for three years of full-on war, and over ten years before that of small scale attacks. Russia is being bled of resources. Vice President Vance (or whatever his real name is) snidely suggested that Zelenskyy was having problems staffing his army, yet Russia has resorted to using North Koreans as cannon fodder. 

Trump and Vance behaved disgracefully, but totally within character.