Trump "Accomplishments" - Part II

There's no doubt in my mind that we're in the early, or even mid stages of a dictatorship. I've discussed that conclusion on many occasions. As someone who believes that democracy is not only important, but is the bedrock upon which our nation is built, the many undemocratic actions that Trump and his enablers in the Republican Party have undertaken have taken a wrecking ball to our democratic institutions. I often hear his supporters minimize this incipient authoritarianism, justifying it by claiming that "he gets things done". 

But does he? If the illegal and unconstitutional actions had been accomplished legally, would they still be considered as having contributed to the greater good? 

If they didn't care how he did it, how many families he broke up, how many laws he broke, would a Trump supporter consider that Trump was fulfilling his campaign promise of closing the border? Probably they would. 

One of the reasons that it appears that Trump has solved the problem of illegal immigration is that Trump says he has solved the problem of illegal immigration. He throws around statistics that are suspect and often compares apples to oranges. For example, early in his second term he compared the total number of Border Patrol encounters for one month of Biden's term with the average weekly numbers for a month early in his own term. Figures that you seldom see are the comparison of the average number illegal crossings that Biden inherited from Trump's first term with the number that Trump inherited from Biden. Trump walked into a much better scenario than Biden did. Trump also tends to take credit for the actions of others. While it is true that Biden's action on border security came late in his term, and only after tremendous pressure, what we are seeing now is a continuation of the downward trend that began under Biden. 

While it's clear that illegal immigration through the southern border is a fraction of what it had been at its peak, what's not clear is why. People who are fleeing poverty and gang violence can be pretty tenacious about getting out of those situations. We haven't increased the number of Border Patrol agents (although the Army and National Guard are patrolling sections of the border) and we haven't yet built Trump's Wall. It's possible that potential illegal immigrants have checked out the political situation here and have decided that it isn't worth the risk. In that case it isn't that the border is more secure, it's just that the millions facing starvation and death think coming here is a worse deal for them. Or maybe the coyotes are just getting more creative. What happens if one day things get so bad that they all think it's worth the risk? The Border Patrol will still be the same size as it was in 2024 and we're back where we started. Personally I think it's suspicious that illegal crossings are supposedly down when one of the main avenues of legal entry, asylum claims, have been virtually eliminated. I would think that cutting off a legal way to come here would increase illegal attempts. Me, I don't trust the numbers; as soon as they start looking bad Trump will fire Noem or whoever tracks that information. 

From what I can tell asylum seekers who are turned back are tracked separately from illegal crossings. However, Trump and his people have made no secret that they think asylum claims are a big scam, with those applying for it just parroting the right words in order to bring their drug import business into the U.S. But it's perfectly legal to apply for asylum; denying virtually all cases without due process has nothing to do with controlling illegal immigration, but with ending immigration period. (At least the brown kind) Would Trumpists see this as an accomplishment? No doubt they would. Because it's not just about illegal immigration, if it was, there would be a push for an expanded immigration court system, and a streamlined system for vetting and processing people. But the Trumpists see immigration as diluting the blood of "real" Americans. 

This is why the lack of due process as undocumented immigrants, as well as non-citizens who are here legally, are rounded up and sent to Salvadoran prisons, or to countries with which they have no ties, doesn't bother them. They're willing to turn aside as the promise to prioritize ejecting violent criminals is forgotten and otherwise law abiding asylum seekers, green card holders and those under temporary protect status are arrested at immigration hearings or at appointments to renew their green card. They consider the ICE raids an "accomplishment" even though it's not really what Trump said he would do. 

To the Trump Cult the ends justify the means.

Trump "Accomplishments" - Part I

There's no doubt in my mind that we're in the early, or even mid stages of a dictatorship. I've discussed that conclusion on many occasions. As someone who believes that democracy is not only important, but is the bedrock upon which our nation is built, the many undemocratic actions that Trump and his enablers in the Republican Party have undertaken have taken a wrecking ball to our democratic institutions. I often hear his supporters minimize this incipient authoritarianism, justifying it by claiming that "he gets things done". 

But does he? If the illegal and unconstitutional actions had been accomplished legally, would they still be considered as having contributed to the greater good?

How about taxes? Separating out all the non-tax related items in the just passed tax and spend bill, the items that affect working class Americans are the tax rate, taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security and reductions in Medicaid. The tax rates in the 2017 tax bill were set to expire this year, if they had not been made permanent, this would have resulted in an effective tax increase for many Americans. The most significant part of the tax code change in 2017 was that the standard deduction was doubled. This reduced taxable income, and therefore tax liability for many middle income taxpayers. It also simplified tax return preparation for taxpayers who were on the low end of itemization, since the higher standard deduction in many cases obviated the need to itemize. Naturally the effect of the change effected different households in different ways, but I personally benefitted. Since the personal deduction was eliminated, households with larger families could have come out behind, but the average family came out ahead. 

The promised elimination of taxes on tips and on overtime were a bit more complicated. I wrote about that in this article on tips, overtime and Social Security. Tips and overtime will still be subject to payroll (FICA) taxes and state income tax, but taxpayers will be able to claim a deduction when filing their federal tax return. This should, at least for the first year, result in larger than usual refunds. Since most people seem to judge the fairness of the tax code based on the size of their refund, this should make a lot of people happy. I get a small number of tips every year as part of my business income, so I'm not sure if I benefit from the tip deduction. I had around $1400 in overtime income this year, but the only amount that is deductible is the "and a half" portion of time and a half. So I'll reap a small benefit. Taxes on Social Security is similar, but not exactly the same. Before this bill passed seniors (65+) could claim an addition $2,000 standard deduction. Starting next year that extra senior deduction increases by $6,000 whether or not they are receiving Social Security. This should wipe out an additional tax liability I incurred from cashing out my accrued vacation and sick time hours. 

Don't forget that the deductions for tips, overtime and seniors all expire after four years!

One could argue (and I do) that the net benefit to middle income Americans is infinitesimal, the benefit to low income families is nil, but the cumulative hit to the government revenue is quite significant. Wealthy individuals and corporations certainly are the winners here. Whether it's a big picture "win" is debatable, but it's unquestionably a public relations victory and gives Trump supporters something to point to when cheering on their guy. This isn't something that I has a Trump opponent would waste my time arguing, the nuances are just too deep for a typical Trumper. 

Medicaid reduction is another story. Trumpists will cheer this on, mainly due to misunderstanding and disinformation regarding what Medicaid is. Simply put, it's medical insurance for people with limited income and resources. Trumpists and other Republicans would have you believe that Medicaid recipients are living high on the hog, drawing these government benefits. The only benefits that those who are enrolled in Medicaid receive are their medical bills paid. In order to reduce the amount spent on Medicaid, work requirements have been imposed on all recipients. To some, this might seem like common sense. Of course someone receiving "free stuff" shouldn't be sitting on their butt all day. But three quarters of all Medicaid beneficiaries are already working. The bulk of the remainder are either disabled, elderly, or children. So what's the problem? The problem is twofold. Any time individual states have added work requirements a significant number of people have dropped out. Not because they didn't qualify, but because the red tape was often so confusing that they were kicked off because they didn't fill out the labyrinthine forms correctly, or just became discouraged and gave up. This is what the Republicans want to happen. The other part of the problem stems from the way Medicaid is paid. The federal government delegates to the states the administration of the program and distributes grants to them to do so. With the budget for Medicaid slashed, fewer dollars will be going to the states, which will need to make hard decisions on whether to raise taxes or cut the programs. Guess which choice most state legislatures will make? 

Unlike the situation with taxes and deductions, there's no grey area here. Trump and his toadies in Congress are attempting to pay for their support of their billionaire buddies by taking away medical care from those of us who can least afford it. (And partly to pay for the PR stunt of "no tax" on tips, OT and Social Security) And they've still managed to increase the deficit and the debt while doing it. 

I was planning on including other Trump campaign promises, but this one took up a lot of space. There will be a Part II (and maybe a III or IV)