Monday, May 28, 2018

Spygate and Other Paranoid Fantasies

It seems like a day doesn't go by without Trump coming up with insulting nicknames, inaccurate descriptions of events and hyperbolic assuming of the martyr mantle. His latest focus, if the man is actually capable of focus, is what he has been calling "Spygate".  Trump has been alleging that "Obama" embedded a "spy" in the Trump campaign "long before this Russia thing". If you get all your news from Fox & Friends or your friends' Facebook statuses, then you might assume that this is true.

At the end of this blog post I will include a link to a Wikipedia page that contains a timeline - much more information that I can include in one sitting! But suffice it to say that Trump's allegations that Obama was spying on his campaign, that any attention was for political reasons, that Trump was not told of potential Russian attempts to co-opt his campaign staff, even that the Mueller investigation is a "witch hunt" are 100% false. Her are a few facts - I'll try to keep it simple.

  • The FBI was investigating Russian "troll farms" as early as 2015
  • The hack of the DNC server was confirmed to be by Russians
    • The DNC was not the subject of an investigation, it was the victim of a crime
    • The FBI did not ask for the physical server, therefore the DNC did not "refuse to hand it over"
    • Documents hacked from the server, that reflected badly on Clinton & the Democrats was later released by Wikileaks
  • There were a not insignificant number of Trump campaign staff that had questionable ties to Russia
  • The British investigator Christopher Steele was initially hired by a Republican primary contender to investigate Trump's Russian connections through the firm Fusion GPS; when that person dropped out, the contract was picked up by the DNC
    • Steele got some of his information from Russians (this is apparently the genesis of the charge the Clinton & the DNC "colluded" with the Russians)
    • Some of this information implicated Trump campaign officials
    • Steele reported his findings to the FBI
    • Around the same time George Papadopoulos, a Trump campaign foreign policy advisor, told an Australian diplomat, during a drinking session, that the Russians had "dirt" on Clinton that had been passed to the campaign
    • This was the impetus for the FISA warrant to begin surveillance of some members of the Trump camapaign, the "dossier" gave additional information
  • Previous to this, conversations of Trump campaign officials were picked up as part of routine surveillance of known Russian agents in the United States
  • On August 17, 2016, Trump was warned in an FBI briefing that it was likely that Russian agents would attempt to compromise members of his campaign.
  • Everybody and his brother apparently had illegal or questionable meetings with Russians and then lied about them
  • At some point, it's unclear when, the FBI sent Stefan Halper, a foreign policy scholar, to set up meetings with various Trump campaign officials to attempt to get information about any Russian connections. He was not embedded in the campaign, was not in any way part of the campaign, but met with individuals outside of campaign offices to gather information. There was nothing political about it. 
  • Obama approached Senate majority Leader McConnell with the suggestion that they make a bi-partisan announcement regarding the known Russian interference
    • McConnell refused
    • Obama, concerned that a unilateral announcement would look like he himself was attempting to influence the election, made no announcement
      • Trump characterizes this as attempting to safeguard Clinton's assumed election win
    • Obama did, however, institute several sanctions against Russian entities
  • In 2017, Trump fired FBI Director James Comey, the titular head of the Russia Investigation, which by this time appeared to involve Trump, or at least his associates
    • Trump then bragged to Russian diplomats that getting rid of Comey took a lot of pressure off him
  • Shortly thereafter, Rod Rosenstein, Deputy Attorney General, who had oversight of any investigation since Attorney General Jeff Sessions recused himself, appointed Robert Mueller III, former FBI Director, as Special Counsel to head the investigation
    • Trump regularly criticizes Sessions for recusing himself, stating that if he knew that he's recuse himself he would have gotten someone else for the job
  • Rosenstein, new FBI Director Wray, former FBI Director Comey and Mueller are all Republicans
    • Trump has started characterizing the investigation as "13 Angry Democrats"
    • Trump also paints any of the investigators who were in place during the Obama administration as biased
It's pretty obvious that there's at least cause for an investigation. Whether there was knowing conspiracy, or just ignorance, there are numerous reasons to look into what happened and who was involved. Whether Trump himself is implicated is an open question, but his well-known tendency toward micro-managing, it stretches credulity to imagine that he didn't know something was going on. 

Timeline:













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