It's true that there are certain economic indicators that are unambiguously positive right now; there's argument whether they are a direct result of the current administration's policies or a continuation of the previous administration's or have nothing to do with either. So let's say that I'm happy that the positives are positive.
There's an accusation from Trump supporters that those who oppose him want to see harm come to the country in order to see Trump look bad. Periodically the Facebook meme comparing the national situation to an aircraft pilot appears. In this meme, it is suggested that wanting Trump to fail is like wanting the pilot of the plane that you are on to crash. It's not that we want the country to go to hell, war to break out and a second Great Depression, it's that we don't agree that Trump's policies are good for the country and we want him to fail to implement those harmful polices.
But is the economic health of the United States unambiguously good? Certainly the unemployment rate is so low as to be effectively considered full employment. There have been a few months of record lows, but we're hovering around 4%. Trump likes to take credit for that, but when he was running in 2016 he derided the official numbers as "fake" and suggested that the official government published unemployment rate was much lower than the "actual" figure. He may have been right, since the official percentage does not take into account people who have given up looking for work, but if he was honest (ha!) he'd be consistent in the figures he uses. But the problem with unemployment being so low is that many jobs go unfilled, which affects productivity and growth. When I was in retail management this trend caused us untold problems servicing our customers and spent a large percentage of our time hiring and training. An aspect of the low unemployment rate that is seldom discussed is the lack of real wage growth. Usually low unemployment causes wages to rise, since employers are now competing for employees, but for various reasons, this isn't happening.
The rise in stock prices, which regularly set new records, is also seen as an indicator that the economy is doing well. High stock valuations can be an indicator that the economy is doing well, but there's more to that than meets the high (and Trump seems to think that an increase in net stock valuation somehow erases the national debt) See my earlier blog post for my take on Trump & The Stock Market
Another thing that gets emphasized by the administration is that manufacturing jobs are on the rise. It's certainly true that job growth as been healthy, at least as far as raw numbers go. But it's not clear whether there has been a net increase in high-paying jobs, in manufacturing or elsewhere. Reports of new jobs never seem to materialize and plant closings continue, despite bluster and threats by Trump.
And finally we have the "massive, historic tax cuts", which were neither massive, historic, and for many Americans, not even tax cuts. Initially advertised as tax reform that would eliminate corporate tax loopholes in exchange for lower marginal rates, as well as tax cuts for American workers that would effectively give us all an average annual "raise" of $4000, the "reform" gave corporations a huge windfall while raising the tax bill of many individuals. Lower withholding gave the illusion of more money in our pockets, an illusion that was shattered when tax time came around.
If you voted for Trump, or continue to support him, for economic reasons, you might want to reconsider.
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