Voting for Third Parties

It may come as a surprise to many, but there are more political parties in the United States than the Democrats and the Republicans. But are those parties viable? By viable, I mean, do they have any chance of achieving high office the way things are now?

The founders did not, when writing the Constitution, anticipate political parties, although they formed fairly quickly and became the dominant method of running for president, as well as for state and local positions. The major parties have changed a few times since George Washington was elected, but it always seemed to settle down to just two. The Whigs were a major party until the Civil War. They split internally over the issue of slavery, with the pro-slavery faction joining the Democratic Party and the anti-slavery group forming the new Republican Party. By the early 1900's the Democratic and Republican Parties gained their position as the two major parties.

There are several reasons why third parties have a difficult time gaining traction. One of the main reasons is money. None of the minor parties have the financial resources that the two majors do. It is difficult to get your message out when the big boys can steamroll you with virtually unlimited funds. Another roadblock is institutional. In most states there are restrictive rules regarding what parties can appear on the ballot. Achieving a certain percentage of the vote in the previous election for governor is a common hurdle for staying on the ballot. Initial ballot placement usually is dependent upon gathering a certain number of signatures. As you can imagine, both of these are difficult to do and forces a third party to spend a lot of time, energy and money just gaining ballot access. The rules are written to guarantee that the Democrats and Republicans continue to appear on the ballot, while the system is designed to prevent others from gaining a ballot slot. Is this system fair? Probably not, but it's the way things are...right now.

So what happens when a third party candidate runs for president? Firstly, there's a good chance that he or she will not be on the ballot in all 50 states. And forget about a write-in candidacy, some states require that a write-in candidate get a number of petition signatures in order for the votes for them to be counted. And you'd better make sure that you spell the candidate's name correctly! Even if a third party manages to get on the ballot in every state, there's still decades of inertia influencing people to vote for one of the major party candidates. For a third party candidate to have any chance at success they would already need to have a considerable following. I could imagine Trump, if he decided to ditch the Republican Party in this year's election, standing a chance of getting re-elected, or close to it. He already has a cult-like following across the country, who have no deep loyalty to the Republican Party. Usually, however, a third party candidate is a fringe figure, often to the far right or far left of the major parties. Let's say Senator Sanders did not gain the Democratic nomination and ran under the banner of an existing third party. He would surely split the Democratic vote as his die-hard supports would vote for him and those who supported other candidates would vote for the Democratic nominee. On the other hand, an old-school conservative Republican who ran independently might peel away some Republicans who disliked Trump and probably ensure a Democratic victory.

In many states, which party gets the electoral votes is seldom in doubt. Voting for a third party in California is not likely to make a difference one way or another. In Nebraska, Republicans routinely win 65% of the vote. However in states where the outcome is in doubt, voting for a third party is, in effect, a vote for the "other side". In a battleground or swing state the number of ballots cast for a third party could make a difference between the two major contenders. It may have been Michigan last year where the number of votes cast for the Green Party exceeded the margin of victory in that state by Trump.

In the current political climate, voting for a third party candidate may make you feel more virtuous, but there is a probability approaching zero of that candidate winning. Like it or not, the perfect candidate doesn't exist, and not voting for the less-than-perfect candidate in your party may very well assure the election of someone that you really don't like.