Can Trump win? Is it probable?
Let's look at polls:
A common refrain that you hear regarding polls is that they were all wrong in 2016. But were they? national polls showed Secretary Clinton ahead by 2-4%. That's what happened. Of course we don't elect presidents based on the total number of votes, but on the electoral votes. This is an oversimplification, but the election would have gone the other way if three states' majorities had voted for Clinton instead of Trump. These states were Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, a total of 46 electoral votes. If these states had voted for Clinton the electoral result would have been 273-258 instead of 304-227 for Trump. Each of these states showed Clinton ahead by around 2% - which was within the margin of error. Trump won these states by a combined total of less than 80,000 votes. The problem wasn't with the polling, it was the conclusions that people drew from the polling. One site devoted to analyzing polls, FiveThirtyEight, estimated the odds of Clinton winning at over 90%, which was ridiculous.
Biden is currently polling nationally at 7-10% better than Trump. Other than Pennsylvania, where his lead averages at 4%, Biden's lead in Wisconsin and Michigan mirrors the national lead.
So, there's justification for optimism.
BUT
There is a big push by Trump, Barr and the whole Republican Party to throw up roadblocks to Democratic voters:
* Eliminating polling places
* Attempts to undermine confidence in voting-by-mail
* Hobbling the Post Office's ability to handle large numbers of mail-in ballots
* State level hurdles for voter registration
The only poll that means anything is the one on Election Day. We need to, not only beat Trump, but beat him decisively, in a landslide. We need to, not only beat Trump, but take control of the Senate and retain control of the House of Representatives.
Complacency is our enemy.
No comments:
Post a Comment