Will the election for president be close? I have no idea and neither does anyone else. Polls have proved unreliable over the last few elections for a variety of reasons. Pollsters have attempted to compensate for previous inaccuracies by introducing fudge factors which will supposedly lead to more accurate results. Political action committees and candidates' campaigns have flooded us with "junk polls" that skew the averages.
What will be the influence of minor parties? Despite the moral high ground that some progressives are dubiously claiming regarding the government's support of Israel, their candidate, the Green Party's Jill Stein has no chance whatsoever of receiving even one electoral vote. Would a vote for Stein, or any other minor party, really be a vote for Trump? Only if you assume that these voters would have voted Democratic if not for Israel-Gaza. Many of them distrust both major parties equally and see no difference between them. Speaking of Israel's Gaza war (expanding into surrounding nations) will the Muslim voters help swing Michigan into Trump's column? Could be, since Michigan Muslims aren't any less stupid than any other American voter and don't realize that getting Trump back in the White House will likely be worse for Palestinians than it is now.
Will the election be close? Why does Trump appear to have a chance to be re-elected? It's hard to imagine how it could be, given all that we know about Losin' Don, but there's a lot of amnesia about his four years, some people freaking out about the inflation and it's lingering effects during Biden's term and hallucinating that Trump's presidency was one of peace and prosperity. There's a solid base of Trump supporters, what I and others refer to as the Trump Cult, who would vote for him no matter what. Who believe his ridiculous claims and outrageous lies. If that was the sum total of people who would vote for him, he'd never be elected, but it's not. He had two serious challengers in the Republican primaries, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Ambassador Nikki Haley of South Carolina. The two of them received close to 50% of the votes cast in the Republican primaries. Other than registered Republicans who usually vote for Democrats or Independents (I am one of those) none of those people are going to vote for Vice President Harris; they'll vote for whoever the Republican candidate is. This group has significant overlap with the people who are convinced that every Democrat is a Communist and will vote for Trump as the only alternative. Add to those groups those who think that Harris is a lightweight and believe, for all his negatives, Trump will be better for the country.
Despite all of that, my gut tells me that when all the votes are counted Harris will have a majority of votes cast. But the undemocratic Electoral College could go either way. As little as a few thousand vote win for Trump in all or most of the so-called swing states could give him an electoral college blowout, even if he once again receives fewer actual votes nationwide. Of course if this happens he'll crow about how he "won easily" and claim he also "won" the popular vote, blaming voting by non-citizens and other imaginary Democratic cheating. We all know what will happen if it goes the other way. He and his people have already been ramping up the accusations of rigging and cheating and election deniers are in place in key states, ready to cause chaos.
Let's not forget that it's very likely that the Senate will became majority Republican, so even if Harris wins, getting anything done, including appointing federal judges, will be virtually impossible.
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