Campaign Promises? What Campaign Promises?

Tomorrow is Inauguration Day. The unqualified lunatic who was defeated in 2020 after botching the Covid response, somehow convinced just under 50% of voters that he was best qualified to lead the nation for the next four years. He's going to take the Oath of Office that he has no intention of honoring, and will spend the next 1461 days stoking his own ego, insulting not only his opponents, but his friends and supporters who aren't sufficiently obsequious, and trying to make money from his perch in the Oval Office. 

He made a lot of promises on the campaign trail, in between court appearances. It's a testament to his ability as a con man that he was able to convince so many people that he had the power to affect things that no president has the power to affect, or that he cared enough to make the effort, or had the attention span required to follow through on anything he said at his rallies. 

One of the complaints about the Biden administration from people who might have been expected to vote Democratic was Biden's support for Israel's war in Gaza, characterized as genocide by many. Did anyone seriously think that a Trump administration would be any more kindly disposed toward Palestinians? President Biden's team has been working with Hamas and Israel to broker a cease fire and a return of the surviving hostages, while at the same time providing Israel with the very weapons they have been using to prosecute the war. Trump threatened that "all Hell will break out" if Gaza does not return the hostages by Inauguration Day. A deal has been agreed upon the day before the inauguration, with Trump claiming that his remarks somehow incentivized Hamas to accept the agreement. While I'm glad that Israel will, at least temporarily, stop bombing Gaza back into the Stone Age, and the surviving hostages will go home, what "Hell" does Trump think is worse than what Israel has been inflicting upon Gaza for over a year? Does he think that Hamas will stop calling for the eradication of the State of Israel? That Israel will stop attempting to absorb Palestinian land in the occupied territories and treating Palestinians as second class citizens? It will give him an opportunity to claim credit for a "deal" that he had nothing to do with, but that changes nothing. 

What about illegal immigration? There's no doubt that our immigration system is broken. It's not arguable that President Biden waited too long to take action due to his misguided belief that Congress would come together and address the problem with legislation. Trump promised to deport every person who is here illegally. Even if he does this, it doesn't solve the problem: that there are millions of people who are desperate to escape the situations in their home countries and our immigration and asylum system is not equipped to handle the demand. Deport them all and others will replace them. Meanwhile our economy will be disrupted because most of these people are working and contributing to the economy and paying taxes. My prediction is that there will be some high profile raids, arrests and deportations, causing fear and chaos, but when the dust settles nothing will change. 

Ending the war in Ukraine? Other "deal" that Trump thinks he can make. His initial promise was to end it "within 24 hours", even before he took office. That hasn't happened. About the only way he can force an end to the war is to totally cut off U.S. aid to Ukraine, and even then, the European NATO nations may step up to fill in the gap. Zelensky isn't going to negotiate away part of his country, with the specter of Putin coming back for more after he has a few years to regroup. Putin's not going to back down, because how's that going to look for him if he accepts a "deal" that is essentially a loss for him? Remember that the goal was to incorporate Ukraine into Russia. 

I don't think I even need to dwell on the impossibility of lowering grocery prices - he's already admitted he can't do it. 

About the only campaign promise that I believe he has any intention of following through on is retribution against his perceived enemies. At least opening investigations against them. Of course he'll have compliant allies in Congress who will be investigating the investigations. The Congressional investigations will be little more than a toothless annoyance. There was a "weaponization of the government" committee, that made Gym Jordan a household name, but accomplished nothing other than making the right wing believe that Hunter Biden was important. Pam Bondi and Kash Patel have made statements indicating that they will be "going after" many Trump opponents, although no mention of what laws they are suspected of breaking. 

For most Trump supporters it doesn't matter whether he follows through on his campaign rhetoric, as long as he's in charge. It doesn't matter what he does or doesn't do, because by definition, he's right. That's how cults work.