Earlier this week I got into a disagreement with a friend who is a Trump cheerleader. I had mentioned in passing that there was a lot of work still to be done, and that we were effectively at the same place we were at January through March of this year when hostages and Palestinian prisoners were being released and a cease fire was in effect. He didn't see it that way, claiming that the two agreements were nothing alike. I'll concede that this week's full framework differs from what was negotiated in January, but there's no guarantee that we will progress past this initial phase, just as we didn't seven months ago. Something that is being overlooked, although it is being reported by reputable news sources, is that neither Israel nor Hamas were present at the signing in Sharm Al-Sheikh. The 20 Point Plan was presented by Trump to Netanyahu, who secured the Knesset's blessing, but Hamas was not given that opportunity; they have also announced publicly that several points were unacceptable to them.
Here are the Twenty Points:
The points themselves are in this font, my comments will be in italics
1. Gaza will be a deradicalized terror-free zone that does not pose a threat to its neighbors.
This is an aspiration, a vague goal, not a plan.
2. Gaza will be redeveloped for the benefit of the people of Gaza, who have suffered more than enough.
This is an aspiration, a vague goal, not a plan.
3. If both sides agree to this proposal, the war will immediately end. Israeli forces will withdraw to the agreed-upon line to prepare for a hostage release. During this time, all military operations, including aerial and artillery bombardment, will be suspended, and battle lines will remain frozen until conditions are met for the complete staged withdrawal.
This has been achieved
4. Within 72 hours of Israel publicly accepting this agreement, all hostages, alive and deceased, will be returned.
This has been partially achieved; around a dozen remains have been returned to Israel, there have been problems with the rest
5. Once all hostages are released, Israel will release 250 life
sentence prisoners plus 1,700 Gazans who were detained after October 7, 2023,
including all women and children detained in that context. For every Israeli
hostage whose remains are released, Israel will release the remains of 15
deceased Gazans.
This has been partially achieved; around a dozen remains have been returned to Israel, there have been problems with the rest
6.
Once all hostages are returned, Hamas members who commit to peaceful
co-existence and to decommission their weapons will be given amnesty. Members
of Hamas who wish to leave Gaza will be provided safe passage to receiving
countries.
Hamas has stated that they have not agreed to this point
7. Upon acceptance of this agreement, full aid will be
immediately sent into the Gaza Strip. At a minimum, aid quantities will be
consistent with what was included in the January 19, 2025, agreement regarding
humanitarian aid, including rehabilitation of infrastructure (water,
electricity, sewage), rehabilitation of hospitals and bakeries, and entry of
necessary equipment to remove rubble and open roads.
This has begun
8. Entry of distribution and aid in the Gaza Strip will proceed,
without interference from the two parties, through the United Nations and its
agencies, and the Red Crescent, in addition to other international institutions
not associated in any manner with either party. Opening the Rafah Crossing in
both directions will be subject to the same mechanism implemented under the
January 19, 2025 agreement.
Restatement of #7
9. Gaza will be governed under the temporary transitional
governance of a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee, responsible for
delivering the day-to-day running of public services and municipalities for the
people in Gaza. This committee will be made up of qualified Palestinians and
international experts, with oversight and supervision by a new international
transitional body, the “Board of Peace,” which will be headed and chaired by
President Donald J. Trump, with other members and heads of state to be
announced, including former prime minister Tony Blair. This body will set the
framework and handle the funding for the redevelopment of Gaza until such time
as the Palestinian Authority has completed its reform program, as outlined in
various proposals, including President Trump’s peace plan in 2020 and the
Saudi-French proposal, and can securely and effectively take back control of
Gaza. This body will call on best international standards to create modern and
efficient governance that serves the people of Gaza and is conducive to
attracting investment.
Sounds like a good idea. Are there timelines? The major problem is that Hamas has not agreed to give up the governance of Gaza.
10. A Trump economic development plan to rebuild and energize
Gaza will be created by convening a panel of experts who have helped birth some
of the thriving modern miracle cities in the Middle East. Many thoughtful
investment proposals and exciting development ideas have been crafted by
well-meaning international groups, and will be considered to synthesize the
security and governance frameworks to attract and facilitate these investments
that will create jobs, opportunity, and hope for future Gaza.
The concept of a plan?
11. A special economic zone will be established with preferred
tariff and access rates to be negotiated with participating countries.
When will this be implemented?
12. No one will be forced to leave Gaza, and those who wish to
leave will be free to do so and free to return. We will encourage people to
stay and offer them the opportunity to build a better Gaza.
Okay
13. Hamas and other factions agree to not have any role in the
governance of Gaza, directly, indirectly, or in any form. All military, terror,
and offensive infrastructure, including tunnels and weapon production
facilities, will be destroyed and not rebuilt. There will be a process of
demilitarization of Gaza under the supervision of independent monitors, which
will include placing weapons permanently beyond use through an agreed process
of decommissioning, and supported by an internationally funded buy back and
reintegration program all verified by the independent monitors. New Gaza will
be fully committed to building a prosperous economy and to peaceful coexistence
with their neighbors.
This looks like a restating of #'s 6 and 9. Who will be responsible for destroying the "terror" infrastructure?
14. A guarantee will be provided by regional partners to ensure
that Hamas, and the factions, comply with their obligations and that New Gaza
poses no threat to its neighbors or its people.
What form will this take? Peacekeepers from the militaries of Arab nations?
15. The United States will work with Arab and international
partners to develop a temporary International Stabilization Force (ISF) to
immediately deploy in Gaza. The ISF will train and provide support to vetted
Palestinian police forces in Gaza, and will consult with Jordan and Egypt who
have extensive experience in this field. This force will be the long-term
internal security solution. The ISF will work with Israel and Egypt to help
secure border areas, along with newly trained Palestinian police forces. It is
critical to prevent munitions from entering Gaza and to facilitate the rapid
and secure flow of goods to rebuild and revitalize Gaza. A deconfliction
mechanism will be agreed upon by the parties.
An expansion or restatement of #14. Again, who will be in this ISF? What authority will they have?
16. Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza. As the ISF establishes
control and stability, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will withdraw based on
standards, milestones, and timeframes linked to demilitarization that will be
agreed upon between the IDF, ISF, the guarantors, and the United States, with
the objective of a secure Gaza that no longer poses a threat to Israel, Egypt,
or its citizens. Practically, the IDF will progressively hand over the Gaza
territory it occupies to the ISF according to an agreement they will make with
the transitional authority until they are withdrawn completely from Gaza, save
for a security perimeter presence that will remain until Gaza is properly
secure from any resurgent terror threat.
Nothing really wrong with this, although can you trust Israel to honor this point? They are in the process of effectively annexing the West Bank
17. In the event Hamas delays or rejects this proposal, the
above, including the scaled-up aid operation, will proceed in the terror-free
areas handed over from the IDF to the ISF.
A tacit admission that this "agreement" was put together without any input from Hamas
18. An interfaith dialogue process will be established based on
the values of tolerance and peaceful co-existence to try and change mindsets
and narratives of Palestinians and Israelis by emphasizing the benefits that
can be derived from peace.
Good luck
19. While Gaza re-development advances and when the PA reform
program is faithfully carried out, the conditions may finally be in place for a
credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood, which we
recognize as the aspiration of the Palestinian people.
Not the first time, but it is nothing but weasel words
20. The United States will establish a dialogue between Israel
and the Palestinians to agree on a political horizon for peaceful and
prosperous co-existence.
Pretty much a restatement of #'s 18 and 19
Okay, there are six points that are restatements of other points, so it's really a Fourteen Point Plan.
One of the belligerents (Hamas) had this "agreement" imposed upon them with no input from them, and they have been threatened that it's "comply or else".
To boil this down to its essentials, this is what the "Plan" is all about:
- Cease Fire (in place for now)
- Repatriation of hostages (completed)
- Return of remains of deceased hostages (partially done)
- Hamas will disarm (Hamas will not do this)
- Hamas will step back from their governing role (Hamas will not do this)
- Humanitarian aid will recommence (started)
- Some kind of neutral governing body will be set up
- Some kind of international peacekeeping force will be set up
- Somebody will undertake rebuilding and redevelopment
- Somebody will encourage Israelis and Palestinians to be nice to each other
- If Hamas doesn't comply, Israel, backed by Trump, will recommence bombing Gaza back into the Stone Age
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