A map of New England, supposedly showing congressional district boundaries, has been making its way around social media. The map shows that every district is represented by a Democrat, even though around 40% of the population votes Republican. Let's look at it more closely. We'll compare the representation by party with how the whole state voted in the most recent presidential election.
Maine
Maine has two congressional districts. Both are represented by Democrats. Trump, the Republican candidate received 45% of the vote in 2024. The odd thing about Maine is that, like Nebraska, electoral votes are allocated by district. A majority of one of Maine's two districts voted for Trump, so he received one of Maine's four electoral votes. Nonetheless, they still voted for a Democrat for Congress.
No gerrymandering detected.
Vermont
32% of the state voted for Trump. The state has only one congressional district.
No gerrymandering is possible.
New Hampshire
There are two districts, both represented by Democrats. Trump received 47% of the votes. Looking at the vote distribution, it's possible that some gerrymandering took place. The latest map was drawn up by a Democratic legislature, but was vetoed by a Republican governor. The State Supreme Court stepped in and appointed a Special Master.
Possible gerrymandering.
Rhode Island
Another two district state. Both are represented by Democrats. Trump received 41% of the vote in 2024. Rhode Island's district maps are drawn by a bi-partisan commission.
The redistricting commission follows specific criteria in
drawing district lines, including equal population, compactness, contiguity
(lines connecting areas of the same district must be continuous), preservation
of existing political subdivisions (such as cities and counties), and
compliance with the Voting Rights Act. The commission’s decisions are also
subject to judicial review.
As for gerrymandering, Rhode Island law prohibits any redistricting plan that
disproportionately favors or discriminates against a political party or racial
or language minority group.
Gerrymandering unlikely in the extreme, if not impossible.
Connecticut
There are five congressional districts, all represented by Democrats. Trump received 41% of the votes in 2024. A glance at a map of precinct results from the 2024 presidential election suggests that it may have been possible to draw a map that gave Republicans an advantage in one, or even two districts, however, Connecticut has a bipartisan redistricting committee.
In Connecticut, the responsibility for drawing
redistricting maps lies primarily with the bipartisan redistricting committee.
This committee is composed of six members, with equal representation from both
major political parties in the state. Additionally, the Secretary of the State
serves as a non-voting, ex-officio member of the committee.
When drawing redistricting maps in Connecticut, several
criteria are typically considered:
1. Equal population distribution
2. Contiguity
3. Compactness
4. Respect for existing boundaries
5. Minority representation
6. Preservation of communities of interest
Gerrymandering unlikely in the extreme, if not impossible.
Massachusetts
There are nine districts, all represented by Democrats. Trump won 36% of the votes in 2024. Massachusetts has had Republican governors and Senators in recent memory, but it's been a while since any Republican was sent to the House of Representatives from Massachusetts. The short answer is that while there are plenty of people who vote for Republicans, they are spread out fairly uniformly throughout the state. A precinct map from the 2024 presidential election suggests that it may have been possible to draw a map that gave Republicans an advantage in one, or even two districts.
This article does a good job explaining the situation and includes a mathematical analysis backing up that hypothesis.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1089/elj.2018.0537?cf-mal-redirected=true&
Gerrymandering is possible, but not likely.
Conclusion
While I don't deny that there is Democratic gerrymandering going on (I'm looking at you, Illinois) the New England states aren't a good example of it. Congressional representation that is not proportional to party affiliation, or to how people vote in a presidential election does not necessarily indicate gerrymandering. It's impossible in one-district states, and extremely difficult in two-district states. In some states, like Massachusetts, one party's voters are so spread out that grouping them in their own district is difficult, if not impossible. (Wisconsin is an example on the Republican side, with two of nine districts represented by Republican, even though the state is virtually evenly split between voters of the two major parties)
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