Trump campaigned on keeping us out of "forever wars" and was a harsh critic of our involvement in foreign conflicts. I agreed with him — one of the few areas where I thought he got it right. One of the recurring problems with American military adventurism is mission creep. We go in with a stated goal: overthrow a dictator who we see as a threat (Iraq) or his harboring factions that attacked us (Afghanistan — even tough Bin Laden turned out to be hiding in Pakistan, our ostensible ally), achieve that goal relatively quickly, and then stumble around without a clear plan on what to do next. We ended up spending 10 years in Iraq and 20 years in Afghanistan propping up corrupt and ineffective governments. Iraq has become a virtual ally of Iran and the government we overthrew in 2001 is back in power in Afghanistan.
Trump, jealous that President Obama was awarded a Nobel Peace Prize, wanted one of his own. He has been lobbying public opinion and the government of Norway since he was re-elected, inserting himself in conflicts around the world, claiming that he has ended eight wars — spoiler alert — he has not! He has even created an organization called the Board of Peace, although it appears to be just another grift, collecting billions while accomplishing nothing. So we could all be forgiven for thinking that, despite all the other harmful things Trump is doing and will do, getting us into another war wasn't among them.
Surprise!
Let's not delude ourselves about Iran. They are not the good guys. They are a theocracy. There are elections for civil officials, but the real power is held by the religious leaders and the paramilitary Revolutionary Guards. (And guess what? They're republic! It's right in the name" The Islamic Republic of Iran. What makes them a republic? The fact that they're not a monarchy. Which they were when they were our allies.) They assert dictatorial control over their own people and do not hesitate to throw them in prison or shoot them in the streets for protesting. Sure, that's terrible, but it's hardly unique. I'd venture to say that a significant percentage of nations abuse their own people in a similar fashion. Our own ally, Israel, arguably treats its Palestinian population much worse. An early justification for attacking Iran was regime change: overthrowing its leadership and encouraging the people to rise up and take over the government. Why is it our business and if it is, why aren't we doing the same to North Korea? We don't hear too much about that these days.
Iran doesn't confine its depredations just to its own territory. They bankroll a network of allies in neighboring countries; Hamas in the Occupied Territories, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, as well as militias in Iraq and Syria. Our military fought against some of these proxies in Iraq. They stir up trouble in every country where they have a presence. An argument could be made that their actions destabilize the region, but our allies in the region seem perfectly capable of defending themselves. Why is it our job to personally fix the problem? I don't think it is, but it's probably the strongest argument for any kind of intervention.
Finally there's the issue that gets talked about the most: the possibility of Iran building its own nuclear weapons. Iran maintains that it doesn't want to build nuclear weapons. Maybe they're lying, but what if they did? Do we imagine that they would initiate mutually assured destruction by using a nuclear weapon against Israel or Saudi Arabia? How do we treat problem nations who have nuclear weapons versus those who don't? Libya was bombed, their dictator killed and the country left in an ungovernable shambles after they gave up their nuclear ambitions. North Korea, on the other hand, has nuclear weapons, demonstrates their ability to use them, and is belligerent toward adversaries. Why? Because they have nuclear weapons. Why wouldn't Iran want that level of security?
Previous presidents, ones who actually listened to their advisors, knew that war with Iran was a hopeless endeavor. Whatever perceived threats exist today have existed for 50 years. The best course of action was diplomacy, which is what was accomplished during the Obama Administration. Iran agreed to abandon any nuclear ambitions (which they may not have even had) in exchange for a loosening of sanctions and the release of frozen funds. China, Russia, Germany, The United Kingdom and the European Union in addition to the United States and Iran were signatories to the agreement. There was no sign that Iran was reneging in the agreement. Trump, in his first term, unilaterally reneged on it however, reinstating economic sanctions. It is quite probable that any action that Iran took to move toward building nuclear weapons can be traced to Trump's breaking the agreement.
So, the possibility of an Iranian nuke, which it was unlikely to use became an emergency that had to be addressed by assassinating its Supreme Leader and others in leadership positions as well as extensive bombing of the country's infrastructure. This is where having advisors who weren't yes-men would have been handy. Or having a president who made decisions based on facts and intelligence rather than gut feelings. Why shock and awe didn't work is that Iran's leaders just don't give a damn how much their people suffer in a war and are so fanatical that they just keep on hitting back. They're like the Black Knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail, biting away as his arms and legs are sliced off. And of course it didn't take the world's largest army to close the Strait of Hormuz, strangling the world's oil supply (and now the Houthis are cutting off the Mandab Strait on the other side of the Arabian peninsula). After all this, we have accomplished nothing and have caused energy prices to spike.
A discussion of Trump's actions wouldn't be complete without reference to the cultish behavior of his supporters. The very people who were up in arms about inflation and high gas prices during Biden's presidency and claimed that was why they were voting for Trump were now leading the cheers for this unnecessary war and saying that high gas prices were worth it in order to keep a nuke out of the hands of our enemy, Iran. Oh yeah, they were against war back then too.
But hey, Trump is definitely focussed on the right priorities: destroying the Kennedy Center if he can't have his name on it, building a ballroom and an arch, and kicking reporters out of the White House.
