Sunday, October 29, 2017

Russia Distractions: Investigations into the So-Called Russian Uranium Deal & "The Dossier"

Anyone who pays any attention knows that the Trump campaign, and possibly even Trump himself, is being investigated for allegations that they colluded with Russia to influence the last Presidential election. Unlike the President, Special Counsel Mueller doesn't tweet his every thought, so we won't really know anything until the investigation is complete. However President Trump, as well as some of his surrogates, have been suggesting that it has been established that there was no collusion, and the real collusion was between President Obama, Secretary of State Clinton and the Clinton Foundation with Russia in the instance of "The Russian Uranium Deal". There are also suggestions that the "dossier" on Trump that had a section on urinating Moscow hookers, was evidence of the Clinton campaign colluding with Russia.

The "Uranium Deal"
The allegation is that a Canadian mining company that owned uranium processing plants in the United States was sold to a Russian company resulting in the Russians having control over 20% of the United States' uranium and that this deal happened because The Clinton Foundation received a large bribe from Russian interests.  Sometimes the allegations are phrased as "Clinton sold the Russians 20% of our uranium".

What is true?

  • The U.S. government did approve the sale of the uranium plants owned by Uranium One, a Canadian company, to Rostom, a Russian nuclear energy company
  • The FBI, at the time of the sale, was investigating Rostom for bribery, extortion and other crimes
What isn't true?
  • That 20% of U.S. uranium was sold to the Russians
The assets that were purchased in the United States were processing plants, not mines. If fully operational they had the capacity to process 20% of all uranium processed in the U.S. in a given year. Furthermore, even if these plants had any uranium in their possession, the company had no license to export uranium, so any that they did mine would remain here.
  • That the approval was a quid pro quo for a large Russian donation to The Clinton Foundation. 
Despite the fact that the State Department was one of the departments that signed off on the Uranium One sale, Secretary Clinton did not participate in any of the discussions related to the sale. The Treasury Department was the lead cabinet department in the approval of this sale. 

This sale did not affect national security, including our stock of uranium, in any way, nor was Clinton involved except as the head of a department that had a small part in the approval process. 

The "Dossier"
Christopher Steele, a former British intelligence officer, compiled 17 memos detailing interviews that he had with unidentified Russian sources. Some of the interviewees allege that the Putin government sought to promote Trump as a Presidential candidate and to undermine Clinton, and that the Trump campaign revived information from Russian sources that helped their campaign. The information tracks with a conclusion by the U.S. intelligence agencies that Russian worked to influence the Presidential election. Recently it has been revealed that funding for Steele's research came from the Clinton campaign and the Democratic National Committee, Trump is using this information to accuse the Clinton campaign, rather than his, of colluding with the Russians.

What's different?
  • The allegations against the Trump campaign are that they actively assisted a foreign government in undermining and influencing the election; the Clinton campaign paid for information that established this. 
  • Nothing about what the Russians are alleged to have done seems to have benefited Clinton, but were clearly designed to   undermine Clinton's campaign. 
Distractions
Whether there was active cooperation between the Trump campaign and the Russian government remains to be determined. Mueller is working his way methodically through the evidence, and I for one will trust whatever he comes up with, even if it exonerates Trump. What I find disturbing is how Trump, at every step, is seeking to paint the investigation as a waste of money - money being the ultimate measure of value in Trump's mind. He acts as if it's a forgone conclusion that there is no evidence against him or his associates and that everyone knows this. He points at DNC/Clinton funding Steele's research and the uranium sale as evidence that it's the other guys who are the bad guys, not him.  












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