Trump & Iran

There were very few things about Donald Trump's "policies" that I liked when he was campaigning for president. Even the things that kinda-sorta sounded good were more like vague platitudes than actual plans, and could be dismissed as bullshit, like most political speech. However, he seemed sincere in his stance regarding entanglements in foreign wars. Most presidents, no matter how pacifistic they seem, manage to get us involved in some kind of war. Even Obama, supposedly against our involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan failed to get us out of Afghanistan. Even though we withdrew from active military operation in Iraq, the instability and weakness of the government allowed the proliferation of the so-called Islamic State of Iraq & Syria. Our support for anti-government rebels in Syria at times inadvertently aided Islamist terrorist groups and the air support for Libyan rebels helped to lead to the chaos that reigns there today. Two of our allies in the region, Turkey and the Kurdish militias, would gladly obliterate each other.  No matter what we do, no matter who we support, it all seems to go to shit. Of all the idiocy coming out of Trump's twisted mind, at least he wouldn't be getting us involved in another Middle East quagmire.

Haha, how naive I was!

At complete odds with Trump's stated aversion to getting us involved in yet another war is his tendency to beat his chest and make threats. The concept of diplomacy is completely foreign to him, even the head of the State Department, which is the department that is supposed to do diplomacy, is headed by someone who can best be described as a war hawk.

Since the Islamic Revolution of the seventies, Iran has been a thorn in the side of American interests in the region, mainly in opposition to our main allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia. Iran has supported groups like Hamas and Hezbollah which have worked to destabilize the region and are currently engaged in a proxy war with Saudi Arabia in Yemen. International pressure, including sanctions had been ineffective in subduing Iran's disruptive tendencies. This is where the Obama era Iran Nuclear Agreement comes. The Unites States, along with several major European nations, China and Russia, negotiated an agreement whereby economic sanctions would be loosened and eventually completely lifted, in exchange for Iran's limiting their nuclear production, making it more difficult for Iran to produce a nuclear weapon. The agreement, although far from perfect, was the best that could be attained at the time, and had the advantage of support from, not only the Western powers, but China and Russia as well.

Then along came Trump.

It is a virtual certainty that Trump was not familiar with the details of the Iran Nuclear Agreement, but that didn't stop him from calling it a "disaster" (one of his go-to words for policies that he doesn't like) or "the worst deal ever". Many of Trump's "policies" are simply slogans designed to get his base riled up, positions such as building a "big, beautiful wall" and "ending the war on coal". That's Trump playing populist. Another side of Trump's decision making was his focus on erasing anything that President Obama accomplished, just because Obama accomplished it. Trump, through his son-in-law Jared Kushner, also seems to have business interests in Saudi Arabia, Iran's arch-nemesis, which might explain a policy that weakens their enemy. So Trump cancels the agreement, without consulting with the other signatories, somehow believing that bullying and threats will accomplish his ephemeral goals. Not only does he believe that threatening Iran will cause them to suspend their nuclear program, which they had already done, but he also believes that threatening the other signatories, including our allies will make it all better.

What Trump doesn't understand is that other nations also have national pride. The fastest way to get kicked out of office is to roll over for America. The Iranian government, in order to save face with their own people, and more importantly with the hardliners among their leadership, will not acquiesce to American provocation, but very predictably will return to their old ways.

Another thing that he doesn't understand is that he's like the Boy Who Cried Wolf with his threats. He has threatened military action against North Korea and Venezuela and now Iran. In the case of North Korea he has rolled over for Kim, ignoring clear provocations because he's received a "beautiful letter". With Venezuela, despite tweeting that the United States is "with" the Venezuelan opposition, he has chosen to ignore Maduro's actions. Failing to follow through on threats was a major criticism that Obama faced during his administration. Eventually, Trump will accede to his own hardliners and go to war with Iran to "solve" the problem that he created.