Inflation, Gas Prices, and The Cult

It's a truism that presidential elections are determined by the economy. People claim that they care about foreign affairs, wars, infrastructure — but it's really the state of the economy that drives the bus. In the 2024 election the perception was that for most Americans the economy was bad. Inflation had peaked around 8% in 2022. Even though there were a number of reasons that were completely outside the control of President Biden, people predictably blamed him for the mess. It wasn't unreasonable to point out that during Trump's first term inflation was around the 2% Federal Reserve Board target, suggesting that Trump and the Republicans were better for the economy. Of course the truth was more complex. Trump's economy was fine until Covid, and Trump's mismanagement of that crisis, caused cascading issues leading to supply-chain disruptions, whipsawing supply and demand, all coming to a head after the 2020 election of Joe Biden. But enough voters were unconvinced by logic (or facts) and chose to vote for Trump based on the economy — or rationalize their support for the more odious aspects of his reign by citing the economy. 

The problem with relying on Trump to fix the economy is that he has a third grader's grasp of economics. His unshakable belief that a trade deficit indicates that we are losing money and that tariffs are paid for by foreign governments is the most obvious recurring example. He also seems to be enamored of magical thinking believing — that his mere presence will solve any and all problems. He campaigned on ending inflation on Day One. He promised to return prices to pre-2022 levels. He vowed to cut energy prices in half. Those of us not in the thrall of Trump worship knew that the lingering high prices had little to do with any Biden policies and that there was little that Trump could do to fix them. A president isn't a magician with the ability to singlehandedly cause a boom or a bust. Ironically, with inflation and gas prices trending downward throughout 2023 and 2024, both the consumer price index and gas prices would have returned to normal if he had done absolutely nothing. By just coasting on the trends he could have claimed to have fixed the economy. Gas prices had dropped to well below $3.00/gallon and were expected to get even lower. But Trump did the two things that were guaranteed to cause prices to rise: impose irrational tariffs and start a war in the Middle East.  

Unless every tariffed business suddenly voluntarily and altruistically decides to reduce their profits, the cost of tariffs will get passed on to the consumer. Not to mention the unpredictability and confusion that the constantly changing tariff rates cause. Businesses crave stability. They have to have enough information to make financial projections. Not only are the Trump tariffs being regularly found illegal by the courts, but Trump himself constantly changes his mind on who he is going to punish and by how much. The failure of the inflation rate to return to normal is entirely Trump's. Of course, the Iran War, with the Strait of Hormuz being blocked (by Iran and  by the United States!) is the direct cause of the rise in gas prices. Trump has mocked "affordability" as fake news, and belittled (or is it be-liddl'ed) the concern over rising gas prices by assuring us that it's only temporary and true patriots are willing to pay the price. 

Trump's justifications are unsurprising. Politicians always attempt to portray their screw ups in a positive light. The reactions of his supporters, even those who are negatively affected by his economy-busting policies, makes no sense. The villagers who had the torches, pitchforks and sickles ready to go, who were adamant that the economy was why they voted for Trump, now aren't as concerned about inflation or high gas prices. A common excuse is "inflation and gas prices were higher under Biden", which is true for the peak in 2022. Both inflation and gas prices were steadily decreasing, and would likely have continued to decrease if Trump, as I wrote in a previous paragraph, had done nothing. But the point that they intentionally miss is that even during the last half of 2024, when inflation was pretty much under control, and gas prices were actually lower than they are now, Trumpists were losing their minds about how terrible things were. Their other excuse is that "Biden caused it". Even if we concede that Biden caused the economic mess that Trump inherited, they brush off Trump's promises to fix it all. On Day One. 

The most egregious example of Trumpists changing their tune when Trump changes his is their newfound support for foreign adventurism and their acceptance of the economic fallout from it. One of Trump's promises in his campaign was that he wouldn't start wars, he would end them. Despite that promise, the Trump Cult is now expressing thankfulness that we are now safe from a country we were never in any danger from and viewing skyrocketing energy prices as an acceptable tradeoff. 

Yes, there are voices within the Republican Party and the MAGA base who are upset at the affordability crisis and opposed to the Iran War, and media jump on that as if the cultists are abandoning their leader. We've seen this before. There's some rumblings and a few people from the cult speak out, but pretty soon it all settles down and he reasserts his control.