Tuesday, January 28, 2020

Debunking the Debunking


It’s not just about a phone call. The phone call was merely what caught the attention of a concerned staff member who subsequently filed a complaint.

Before the phone call, Trump’s personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, was gallivanting around Ukraine, trying to dig up dirt on Joe Biden and trying to get the United States Ambassador to Ukraine fired. Giuliani, at Trump’s direction, was undermining Department of State officials. Everyone involved, from the Ambassador to the European Union, to the replacement for the fired Ambassador to Ukraine, to career State Department officials knew two things: that the president of Ukraine wanted military aid and a meeting at the White House with Trump and that Trump wanted an investigation, or at least the announcement of an investigation, into Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden. Despite out-of-context quotes indicating assumptions, presumptions and speculations, everyone involved told the same, or at least complementary, stories about what was going on. This is the context in which the supposedly perfect phone call took place.

The phone call in which, after President Zelensky thanked Trump for his assistance, including the $391 billion that had been allocated by Congress, Trump immediately responded with “…but we’d like you to do us a favor though”. The word “though” indicates that there are conditions, and the conditions are twofold: look into the location of the DNC server and start an investigation of Burisma and the Bidens. And Trump suggested that Zelensky talkto, not only Attorney General Barr, but Rudy “The Human Hand Grenade” Giuliani.

The first condition is very telling. During the 2016 election campaign the DNC server was hacked by elements of Russian Intelligence. A private company, Crowdstrike, conducted forensic analysis that was later utilized by the FBI in their investigation of the hack. In order to conduct  investigations of this kind, it is not necessary to physically remove the server from the premises. However, a conspiracy theory circulated that the DNC refused to “turn over” the server to the FBI (even though the FBI never asked them to and didn’t need them to) and that the server itself was spirited away to Ukraine. This was part of a larger conspiracy theory that it wasn’t Russia that hacked the server and interfered with our election, but Ukraine, who then tried to frame Russia. Giuliani pushed this nonsense on Trump. Trump, who ignores the advice and analysis of experts and listens to whatever crackpot nonsense his friends tell him, internalized this and formed an opinion that Ukrainian politicians were all corrupt (one of his favorite words) and “bad people”. There is some truth in that – Ukraine’s government had been notoriously corrupt, but had been certified recently by the Department of Defense to have made sufficient progress to be able to receive lethal military aid.

During the Obama Administration, there was an effort to tie aid to Ukraine to rooting out government corruption. This was supported by our European allies and was official American policy. Joe Biden was made the “point man” in this effort. At the same time, Biden’s son Hunter was given a position on the board of Burisma, a Ukrainian energy company. An investigation into Burisma had begun, but was abandoned by the Ukrainian Chief Prosecutor. This prosecutor was widely seen as corrupt, and it was his refusal to investigate bribery and corruption that fueled the effort to have him removed. Vice President Biden put pressure on the president of Ukraine to fire the prosecutor, who only did so when Biden threatened to withhold an aid package. A video circulates of Biden bragging about accomplishing this. In the aftermath of the firing, the new prosecutor did investigate Burisma and found no evidence of any wrongdoing by anyone at Burisma, including Hunter Biden. At the time there was concern within the Obama administration about the appearance of impropriety, Hunter Biden landing a plum job in Ukraine while his father, the Vice President was tasked with addressing Ukrainian corruption. However, the decision was made to take no action. At the time Republicans held majorities in both houses of Congress, yet no investigation was opened, even though Congressional Republicans showed no hesitancy in conducting multiple overlapping investigations in things like Benghazi. Why Benghazi, but not the Bidens in Ukraine? The big difference was that Clinton was running for president and Biden was not.

One of the Trump legal team’s defenses is that the president has a duty to investigate corruption and make any aid contingent upon rooting it out in nations that we supply with financial or military assistance. Trump, prior to Joe Biden’s announcement that he was running for president, showed no interest in eliminating corruption anywhere. In fact, Trump rarely shows any interest in anything unless it benefits him personally, or he has been lobbied about it. The conspiracy theories about Ukraine, coupled with the opportunity to smear a potential electoral rival, appears to be the only thing that piqued Trump’s interest in Ukraine. It’s also telling that the only alleged corruption in Ukraine that Trump is focused on is that of the Bidens.

A second line of defense from Trump’s team is that the investigation never happened, and the aid was released ahead of schedule. Much is being made of the supposed schedule for releasing the aid package. But the aid should have been released months before, when it had been allocated. No reason was given for the delay and it has recently been revealed that delaying the aid was illegal. The “deadline” was the end of the fiscal year. If the aid had not been released before then, it would have been lost and Ukraine would not have received it. In fact, it was released, not ahead of, but well behind schedule. Would an investigation have happened if Trump had not been caught by the whistle-blower’s complaint? If not, would the aid have been permanently lost? A related argument is to point out that Zelensky really had met with Trump, that somehow a photo op at the United Nations satisfied the request for a White House meeting.

None of this has been debunked by Trump’s legal team, although they continue to claim that the House’s case has been “destroyed”. The supposed debunking has been thoroughly debunked.

The rest of the legal team’s defense has been procedural. There was no due process, even though Trump blocked many witnesses and refused to participate. The House Impeachment committee had no authority to subpoena or otherwise call witnesses, so it was illegitimate. It should have been the Judiciary Committee, not the Intelligence Committee, which conducted the initial hearing, so it was legitimate. Republicans were locked out of the initial hearings (they weren’t). Impeachment and removal requires an actual statutory crime (it doesn’t).

And now we have the spectacle of John’s Bolton’s manuscript being leaked. They moaned and groaned about no firsthand witnesses, even though they blocked them all. Now we have a firsthand witness, who not only says he will testify if subpoenaed, but we know what he will say, now that firsthand witness is not credible. Pretty convenient argument.

The facts are not in dispute. The explanations and rationales are ridiculous.


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