Even with a "normal" president, campaign promises are often more aspirational than concrete. Congress may not support the campaign promises. Global events may completely derail presidential plans. Bursting housing bubbles and pandemics change everything.
With Trump it's a whole 'nother game.
Attempting to figure out what Trump will do in his second term is not as simple as listening to what he says. One reason for that is that he's a shameless, unrepentant, liar. Not just the typical politician's lies to make themselves look better, but lies about everything. Who else would spend valuable time during a debate arguing about crowd size? Or continuing to bring up a "Michigan Man of the Year" award that never happened? A corollary effect of his lying is that he will say whatever it takes to get people to applaud during his rallies. In Nevada, where the hospitality industry provides the lion's share of employment, he promises to eliminate income taxes on tips; in industrial areas, it's taxes on overtime. To his typical anti-immigrant audience he emphasizes deporting millions. His stance on abortion changes depending on who he's talking to.
Another aspect of Trump's personality which effects the actions that he takes is that he is a narcissist. He has be to be the main character of every story, the guy in the spotlight. If any of his cabinet members, advisors, or supporters looks like they're getting credit for a program, even if it conforms to a known Trump priority, Trump's ego will prevail over getting his agenda implemented. Trump may say things that make his supporters think that he has their best interests at heart, that he loves our country and is doing things that they believe are best for the nation, but Trump is only in it for the boost to his own ego. He only ran for the second term because he couldn't stand the humiliation of losing in 2020 to the man he derided as "Sleepy Joe".
Let's not forget, despite having been the president from 2017-2020, he is still profoundly ignorant about how things work. The most obvious example is his repeated misrepresentation of how tariffs work. He has no desire to learn how to connect the dots regarding any of his ideas or their ramifications. An observation that I saw the other day was a speculation about what minor concessions would Trump accept from Mexico, Canada (Canada!) and China in order to claim that his threat of tariffs "worked". He has already lied about the President of Mexico's response, claiming that she agreed to "close the border" - she responded that she would never do that.
The previous examples focus on how things he said he would do might not get done. But there are a number of his pronouncements that are illegal, or unlikely to garner Congressional support, that a reasonable person might conclude can't get done. But this is an area where his ego and ignorance could very well combine into an arrogant attempt to circumvent the Constitution. His success at evading any meaningful accountability for his actions, combined with the Supreme Court ruling giving him virtually unlimited immunity from prosecution, will surely embolden him to ignore Congress and the courts. Of all his cabinet picks, the selection of Pam Bondi, who unlike Jeff Sessions, fully supports prosecuting Trump opponents for whatever imaginary crimes she can dream up, is the most disturbing. It remains to be seen whether the Senate will comply with Trump's "suggestion" that adjourn so that he can make recess appointments and avoid Senate confirmation hearings, but it's an authoritarian "suggestion" nonetheless.
I'm under no illusions about this administration. But I just don't know how bad things will be.
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