One of the processes that are different this time around is way he's putting together his cabinet and other key positions. In 2016 it was obvious that he and his core team had no idea how many slots needed to be filled or what qualifications were required. He ran the selection process like a small town job fair - taking applications and holding interviews, announcing on Twitter who the "finalists" were. (Who can forget the way he humiliated Mitt Romney, dangling Secretary of State and unceremoniously dumping him) This time around he's doing it more like the traditional way: deciding ahead of time who he'd want in various jobs, or sifting through those who expressed interest, then making an offer. A very much behind-the-scenes, opaque methodology. The difference between Trump's transition and an actually normal transition is that for many of these posts their qualifications are an antipathy toward the mission of the agency they have been chosen to lead. The main qualification, however, is a servile loyalty to Trump himself. There are several nominees that would fit into any Republican administration, Senator Marco Rubio is one example, but even he has transformed from a typical Republican into a Trumpublican over the last eight years. In addition to cabinet picks who want to burn it all down, and traditional types, there are the truly unqualified. Loyalists whose only qualifications is loyalty. There are several potential appointees whose experience consists entirely of being a Fox News host. Even Pete Hegseth, nominated as Defense Secretary, whose qualifications appear to be National Guard officer and Fox News host, has no experience managing a large organization. This would be equivalent to viewing my nine years working for the Nebraska Department of Revenue as sufficient qualification to be Treasury Secretary. Let's not overlook the Attorney General and FBI picks who not only support the January 6th Insurrection and lies about a stolen election, but have made it clear that they plan on investigating, prosecuting and jailing political opponents.
The biggest clue to what actions Trump will take came this week in the realm of economics. Many people who voted for Trump based their decision primarily on the economy. (Whether that was a rationalization to cover anti-immigrant bigotry or other categories of hatred is another subject). It is inarguable that inflation was high during most of Biden's term, compared to relatively low rates during Trump's first term. Anyone with a basic understanding of economics understood that a president has little to do with prices. (Not nothing, but the effect of presidential policies, with a few exemptions, is negligible). The inflation that we saw was caused by multiple factors: supply chain disruptions post-pandemic, increased demand for some items during Covid, and increased demand for different items after the pandemic died down, stimulus checks heating up demand, increased travel compared to a virtual shutdown causing shortages in fuel, widespread wage increases, opportunistic price increases by big corporations, and home valuations going up resulting in higher property taxes.
Most people saw this as a binary economic choice. With inflation as the determining factor, Trump was good, Biden was bad, despite most other economic measures such as unemployment, stock prices, and job growth, being positive, people focused on inflation. They didn't want to hear the nuanced explanations from the Biden team and fell for the simplistic slogans from the MAGA camp. Trump doubled down on this, making all kinds of promises that would, if enacted, financially help most Americans. The problem was that it was all bullshit.
Trump promised to eliminate taxes on tips (Harris did this too) overtime, and social security. He promised to cap credit card interest at 10% and make interest on car loans tax deductible. Naturally he received loud cheers for this. But his most bullshitty promise was to reduce the price of gas and groceries. The price of a box of cereal is based on so many variables like supply chain increments, labor, and the cost of ingredients, that over the long haul prices go up but they never go back down. Deflation is not a good thing. Nonetheless, Trump has promised to bring down prices...quickly. The price at the gas pump has always seemed to operate under its own rules though. The trend is always upward, although there are peaks and valleys in the prices over time. The average gas price sunk to around $2.00/gallon in 2020 because people weren't driving. The peak prices of $4-$5/gallon in 2022 have since sunk back down to reasonable levels of under $3.00/gallon.
Trump has already waffled on his promise to lower prices, which all of us who didn't vote for him knew was unattainable. In an interview last week Trump was asked if his presidency would be considered a "failure" if he didn't deliver on his promise to slash Americans' food bills. "I don't think so. Look, they got them up. I'd like to bring them down. It's hard to bring things down once they're up. You know, it's very hard”. Yeah. It's hard. How about it's impossible. Which we knew. Let's not forget that two of Trump's other promises, to increase tariffs and deport millions of immigrants are among the few actions that a president that are guaranteed to cause inflation.
What does this tell us? That Trump simply doesn't care about lower and middle income Americans once he has their votes. He can't run again, so he doesn't need to court the electorate, except to stroke his insatiable ego. We can count on any of his campaign promises that would have helped 99% of Americans to be forgotten as he prioritizes actions that help the 1% and smooth the way for revenge against those who tried to hold him accountable.
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